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This section is a table of contents for this topic. It is in outline or tree form, with supporting sub camps indented from the parent camp. If you are in a sub camp, you are also counted in all parent camps including the agreement camp at the top. The numbers are canonized scores derived from the people in the camps based on your currently selected canonizer on the side bar. The camps are sorted according to these canonized scores. Each entry is a link to the camp page which can contain a statement of belief. The green line indicates the camp page you are currently on and the statement below is for that camp.

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4 Milestone, if reached, we'll have human level AI within 5 years?
Agreement Statement

"Can you think of any milestone such that if it were ever reached you would expect human-level machine intelligence to be developed within five years thereafter?"

At the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) Winter Intelligence conference on machine intelligence Jan 16, 2011 an informal poll was conducted by Anders Sandburg to elicit the views of the participants on various questions related to the emergence of machine intelligence. (see http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/21516/MI_survey.pdf )

Question number 4 on this survey was the open text question above, the subject of this open survey topic. The goal here is to take the similar, more well accepted better ideas contained therein, to collaboratively merge them, building consensus, using the best descriptions and arguments, get a quantitative measure for the most well accepted of them, and make the survey more dynamic and open so more people can contribute, and have the ability to change camps in a trackable way as things go forward.

Camp Support

Supporters can delegate their support to others. Direct supporters receive e-mail notifications of proposed camp changes, while delegated supporters dont. People delegating their support to others are shown below and indented from their delegates in an outline form. If a delegate changes camp, everyone delegating their support to them will change camps with them.

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Support Tree for "Agreement" Camp

Total Support for This Camp (including sub-camps): 4

Current Topic Record:

Topic Name: Human Level AI Milestone?

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Current Camp Record:

Camp Name: Agreement

Title: Milestone, if reached, we'll have human level AI within 5 years?

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